Recently, many people have questioned the authenticity of the economic data released by the U.S. government. To solve this problem, the key is to break out of the limitations of single data points and analyze them within a complete time series.

The economic indicators of the United States can be divided into three main categories:

1. Leading indicators: such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and money supply. These indicators act like the "trailer" of the economy, capable of showcasing potential economic trends 3 to 9 months in advance.

2. Synchronization indicators: including weekly initial jobless claims and retail sales, reflecting the current economic situation.

3. Lagging indicators: such as the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls. These indicators often take several months to reflect the impact of changes in the economy.

Typically, an economic downturn unfolds in the following order: leading indicators turn first, followed by a weakening of coincident indicators, and finally lagging indicators deteriorate. Therefore, if it is observed that the leading indicators in the U.S. have been declining for several months, while lagging indicators (especially employment data) are still performing well, it is necessary to be vigilant for potential data embellishment or government delays in releasing negative news.

Taking the second half of 2022 as an example, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI remained below the neutral line, and the growth rate of money supply also sharply declined. These leading indicators all suggested an economic slowdown. However, the unemployment rate announced at the beginning of 2023 hit a 50-year low, and this set of "impressive data" once drove a short-term rebound in US stocks. But less than three months later, the unemployment rate began to rise, and a wave of layoffs in the manufacturing sector erupted. Investors who paid attention to leading indicators had already adopted a hedging strategy by reducing positions at the peak of the rebound.

It is worth noting that it is almost impossible to manipulate all economic data in the United States in the long term and comprehensively. This is because these data are distributed among multiple agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Institute for Supply Management, the Federal Reserve, and the Census Bureau, which can cross-verify each other.

For investors, the real opportunity lies in being able to discern asset pricing errors and position themselves in a timely manner when the market is misled by lagging data and ignores leading indicators, thereby achieving excess returns.

In summary, combining and analyzing the three types of indicators: leading, synchronous, and lagging, not only allows us to assess the authenticity of the data but also helps investors make decisions ahead of others. This time-difference-based analytical method provides us with a clearer and more comprehensive economic picture.