Bitcoin breaks through the $90,000 mark, alts market is worth looking forward to

Bitcoin has once again crossed the $90,000 mark recently, driven by multiple factors behind this surge. First, there are signs of easing global trade frictions, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary stating that the current situation is unsustainable and is expected to improve soon. Second, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising, leading to a wavering confidence in the dollar. Although the U.S. President has pressured the Federal Reserve Chair, the latest statements show no intention of dismissal, but rather a desire for a more proactive stance on interest rate cuts.

In this context, Bitcoin has demonstrated the safe-haven characteristics of "digital gold," with its price movement highly correlated with physical gold. As the US stock market rebounded, Bitcoin continued to rise, with an increase of 12% over the past seven days, highlighting its premium advantage as a liquid asset.

It is worth noting that in this round of Bitcoin's rise, most alts did not rise in sync. Bitcoin's market share reached 64.2%, a four-year high. Although the overall trend of alts remains unclear, by observing the alts that performed better than Bitcoin during market turbulence, insights into capital preferences can be gained, providing a reference for potential strong coins in the future.

Notable altcoin tracks

Based on recent performance, the following tracks are worth paying special attention to:

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Despite experiencing a bubble burst, the AI sector still has development potential. With the continuous progress of Web2 AI, Web3 AI projects have undergone a round of reshuffling and are currently valued relatively low; projects that have been tested on the fundamentals may face new opportunities in the future.

2. Public Chain (L1): Public chain coins have always been a more stable choice during the altcoin season. Unlike in 2021, investors now prefer high-performance public chains that can deliver real applications, rather than simple EVM copies.

3. Meme coins: As a carrier of consensus and culture, meme coins have become an important part of this bull market. The leading meme coins on various public chains can be seen as public chain coins with a leverage effect, and their native characteristics and wealth effects have attracted sustained liquidity.

4. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): DeFi is one of the few tracks with a real business model. From exchanges to lending platforms, and to yield aggregators, DeFi projects can generate actual income. Leading DeFi protocols often have network effects and token buyback mechanisms, which are expected to yield more profits when the market is active.

Key Observational Indicators

To determine whether the altcoin season has truly arrived, two key indicators need to be observed:

1. Can the price of Bitcoin stabilize above $90,000, providing confidence support for the market.

2. Is the Bitcoin market dominance (BTC.D) starting to decline, reflecting that funds are beginning to spread to other coins?

Currently, despite Bitcoin breaking through $90,000, its market share has only slightly dropped by 0.2%, indicating that funds are still mainly concentrated in Bitcoin. If BTC.D significantly declines in the future, for example, falling back to around 57% as it was at the beginning of this year, it will signal that funds are officially flowing into the altcoin market, and a rotation trend may fully unfold.

In summary, the real altcoin season requires Bitcoin to continue reaching new highs and an increase in risk appetite, with funds spreading from Bitcoin to other thematic tracks. When both of these conditions are met, the overall market is expected to become fully active. The current stage is a critical period for observation, selection, and layout, and the trend of Bitcoin's market share will be an important indicator of whether the altcoin craze is approaching.