2025 Crypto World Trend Analysis: From Popular Narratives to Substantial Value

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown signs of persistent weakness, which is reflected not only in the altcoins on exchanges but also in the on-chain tokens that performed well in the fourth quarter of last year, which have faced significant declines.

Taking AI-related tokens as an example, the decline this year has been staggering:

• Virtual fell by 79.2%
• Ai16z's decline reached 85.5%
• AIXBT dropped 68%
• Griffain dropped by 80.3%
• Buzz fell by 72.4%
• Fartcoin down 67.5%
• ARC dropped 62%
• Swarms fell by 45%

In less than three months, these once highly sought-after AI project tokens have evaporated up to 80% of their market value. Although it cannot yet be determined that the entire sector has failed, the loss of investor attention has become a fact, and it is difficult to refocus in the short term.

At the same time, the celebrity coin craze sparked by a well-known political figure has rapidly cooled down. Here are the declines of several major celebrity coins since their peak:

• Related coins of a certain political figure: -77.1%
• Related coins of a certain political figure's family: -91%
• Vine：-92.7%
• jailstool：-93.5%
• Jellyjelly: -98%
• CAR：-98.5%
• Libra: -94.3%

The cryptocurrency market is often said to be dominated by "new coins," which means that funds always tend to chase the latest investment concepts. However, compared to the AI sector, the decline of celebrity coins has been even more severe. In the current market environment, which lacks emerging narratives, what exactly are the issues faced by these two once-popular sectors? Is there still a chance for a breakthrough?

Current Market Dilemma: Concept Hype Prevails, Substantive Applications Are Scarce

The main issue in the AI track is that most projects are still at the stage of concept demonstration and future planning, lacking practical products that can be widely promoted. Even though some actionable services have indeed emerged in the market, they often suffer from complex interfaces and poor user experiences, making it difficult to attract ordinary investors for long-term participation. Worse still, some project teams, in order to cater to the market's expectations for "AI + blockchain", often inflate token prices with exaggerated narratives, while actual applications are repeatedly postponed. Over time, investors lose patience and shift their attention, leading to a significant decline in the prices of related tokens.

The celebrity coin track faces the dilemma of the "top flow effect". Although the involvement of a certain well-known political figure has brought tremendous attention to this track, subsequent developments have exposed a reality: it may be impossible to find another public figure who can compete with them in terms of topic relevance and influence. Although political leaders, internet celebrities, and stars from various countries have attempted to follow suit, they cannot replicate the initial funding heat and market sentiment. Market follow-up gradually weakens, and the celebrity coin track shows the characteristics of a fleeting moment, with investor confidence rapidly dissipating and prices subsequently plummeting.

The reason why these sectors are experiencing drastic fluctuations is fundamentally due to the fact that most projects only remain at the level of speculative concepts, lacking real and sustainable revenue models. Whether it is AI or celebrity coins, their core narrative depends on the rapid influx of capital and hype, yet lacks the motivation to encourage long-term user participation. Once the hype fades, it becomes difficult to maintain the price, let alone attract new funds to enter.

Finding Real Yield Projects: The Breakthrough of the Future

In the current market environment, which lacks narrative, the key to standing out is to discover projects that offer "real returns" and are "willing to share with users." The so-called "real returns" refer not only to the short-term price increase at the time of the token's listing but also to the ability to continuously generate returns through actual business models and trading activities, and to feedback these returns to token holders or ecosystem participants.

A typical case is a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform. The business model of this platform is similar to that of centralized exchanges, with the main revenue coming from contract trading fees. The difference is that the platform uses all the fees to buy back its native token, closely linking the coin price with product usage.

According to a data platform, it accounts for about 45% of the total 24-hour trading volume among all decentralized perpetual contract exchanges, with an average daily trading volume of 3.78 billion USD and daily revenue of about 1 million USD. Even in the current market downturn, this platform maintains a very high level of activity. This also explains why, during the recent winter of altcoins, the price of the platform's native token has remained relatively strong.

No matter how hot the market narrative is, it will eventually fade. What can ultimately exist in the crypto world for the long term are those projects that have found the product-market fit ( PMF ), possess high user engagement, and can generate real profits.