Fed Meeting Minutes: Short-term inflation may rise, uncertainty remains regarding tariff impacts.

On August 21, the Fed released the minutes of the July meeting, which mentioned that regarding the inflation outlook, participants generally expect inflation to rise in the short term. They believe there is still considerable uncertainty about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year's tariff increases.

In terms of timing, many participants pointed out that the full impact of higher tariffs may take some time to be reflected in the prices of consumer goods and services. They cited several factors that could lead to this lag, including inventory hoarding in response to tariff increases, the slow transmission of rising input costs to final goods and service prices, gradual updates of contract prices, maintenance of relationships between businesses and customers, tariff-related issues, and ongoing trade negotiations.