As the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches, the market is filled with anticipation for the upcoming speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Currently, analysts have differing opinions on the stance Powell may take, leading to a polarization of market expectations.

Some analysts expect Powell to signal a dovish stance, paving the way for potential rate cuts in the future. They believe that the current economic data supports this view. However, there are also voices warning that if Powell indeed takes a dovish position, it could trigger a "sell the news" market reaction, leading to a pullback in global stock markets.

In contrast, another group of analysts predicts that Powell will maintain a hawkish stance. They point out that the recent Producer Price Index ( PPI ) data shows that inflationary pressures in sectors such as services and rents remain stubborn. Although employment data has cooled somewhat, it has not reached a level sufficient to alter the overall economic trajectory. Therefore, they believe that Powell may choose to keep the current policy unchanged.

Market reaction will be key. If Powell's speech leans dovish, it may trigger market speculation about a rate cut in September, potentially a significant cut of 50 basis points. Such expectations could stimulate the market, particularly the cryptocurrency market, which may experience a short-term speculative rise.

However, based on the overall trend of recent data, a hawkish stance seems more likely. The rebound in service sector inflation is evident, and while the job market has cooled, it is still some distance from an economic recession. Powell may continue to maintain a high level of vigilance regarding inflation data, and the possibility of maintaining a hawkish posture in the short term is quite large.

Regardless of the stance Powell ultimately takes, his speech will undoubtedly be a key factor influencing the short-term direction of the market. Investors should closely monitor this annual meeting and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner based on the actual situation.