Crypto Assets market encounters a cold winter, projects face severe challenges

At the beginning of 2025, the Crypto Assets market is showing worrying trends. Not only are small coins on exchanges performing poorly, but even the on-chain coins that performed well in the fourth quarter of last year have also seen a significant decline.

AI-related coins have suffered heavy losses in just three months:

• Virtual down 79.2%
• Ai16z dropped 85.5%
• AIXBT dropped 68%
• Griffain dropped 80.3%
• Buzz dropped 72.4%
• Fartcoin dropped 67.5%
• ARC fell by 62%
• Swarms fell by 45%

These data reflect that the enthusiasm for the AI sector is rapidly waning. Although it cannot yet be concluded that the field has completely lost its value, the loss of investor interest has become an undeniable fact, and it will be difficult to reverse this situation in the short term.

At the same time, the wave of celebrity tokens led by Trump has also faced a similar fate. The drop in major celebrity tokens from their peak is equally astonishing:

• Trump fell by 77.1%
• Melania dropped 91%
• Vine dropped 92.7%
• jailstool fell by 93.5%
• Jellyjelly dropped 98%
• CAR dropped by 98.5%
• Libra dropped by 94.3%

The sharp decline in these two sectors has prompted the market to reflect on the problems they face. In the current environment lacking new concepts, can the Crypto Assets market find a breakthrough?

Current Market Dilemma: Concept Speculation Prevails, Substantive Application Lags Behind

The main issue in the AI track is that most projects are still at the stage of concept demonstration and blueprint drawing, lacking practical and easily promotable products. Even when some projects launch usable services, they often struggle to attract ordinary users due to complex interfaces and poor user experience. Worse still, some project teams exaggerate their marketing to meet market expectations, but the actual applications have yet to deliver on their promises. This has led investors to gradually lose patience, funds begin to dwindle, and the token prices have significantly fallen.

The celebrity token sector faces the issue of "celebrity effect decay." Although Trump's involvement has generated significant attention, it is challenging to find other public figures who can match his influence. The follow-up effects of other politicians, internet celebrities, or stars are difficult to replicate from the initial hype. As market enthusiasm declines, the celebrity token sector exhibits characteristics of a fleeting phenomenon, with investor confidence rapidly eroding and prices subsequently plummeting.

The fundamental reason for the significant fluctuations in these tracks is that many projects only stay at the level of conceptual hype, lacking real and sustainable profit models. Whether it's AI or celebrity tokens, their core narratives rely too heavily on short-term funding and popularity, lacking the motivation to keep users engaged in the long term. Once the hype fades, it becomes difficult to maintain prices, and even harder to attract new funds into the market.

Looking for projects with real returns

The key to standing out in the current market environment lies in discovering projects that can generate "real returns" and are willing to share them with users. "Real returns" refer not only to the short-term price increases that occur when being listed on an exchange but also to the ability to continuously generate profits through actual business models and trading behaviors, and to return these profits to token holders or ecosystem participants.

A typical example is a decentralized derivatives trading platform. The business model of this platform is similar to that of centralized exchanges, with the main revenue coming from contract trading fees. However, unlike traditional platforms, this platform uses all the fees for repurchasing platform tokens. Since trading fees are directly related to trading volume, this model effectively ties the coin price closely to the actual business performance of the platform.

According to statistics from a certain data platform, this platform occupies about 45% of the 24-hour trading volume share in the perpetual contract DEX field, with an average daily trading volume of 3.78 billion USD and daily revenue of approximately 1 million USD. Even in the current market downturn, this platform still maintains a very high level of activity. This also explains why, during the past month when altcoins generally faced a winter, the token price of this platform remained strong.

Conclusion

No matter how hot a concept is, it will eventually cool down. What can exist long-term in the Crypto Assets market are those projects that find the product-market fit, have high user stickiness, and real returns. When choosing investment targets, investors should pay more attention to the substantive content of the project and its long-term development potential, rather than the short-term market heat.