The crypto world is in turmoil, Bitcoin rebounds, institutional funds flow out, and market sentiment is leaning towards greed.

Market Insights

Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the liquidity of the market has shown signs of improvement. The erratic nature of Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns in the market about the outlook for the U.S. economy, and this uncertainty may continue to impact market trends in the coming months. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar have fallen back into a downward channel, while U.S. stocks have experienced a historic surge, a phenomenon that typically occurs in the mid-stage of a bear market. The cryptocurrency market has also followed U.S. stocks with significant volatility.

Market Performance

This week, Bitcoin experienced an oversold rebound, while some smaller cryptocurrencies saw significant declines due to delisting issues. The market overall lacks a clear hot direction.

The top five cryptocurrencies by increase are XCN (110%), FARTCOIN (100%), GAS (60%), LAYER (40%), and UXLINK (30%). The five cryptocurrencies with the largest decrease are BERA (40%), EOS (20%), MEW (20%), W (20%), and NEAR (20%).

It is worth noting that:

1. BERA, as a DeFi public chain token, has fallen below its long-term support level, hitting a new low. In the past week, its on-chain stablecoins have decreased by $300 million.
2. FARTCOIN is a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem that has surged several times against the backdrop of a sluggish overall market, becoming a leader in this round of rebound.
3. BABY is the staking representative in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and after being listed, its market value returned to the level of 800 million dollars from the last round of institutional investment.

On-chain Data Analysis

The capital inflow into the Bitcoin market has come to a standstill. Market liquidity is rapidly shrinking, causing the total market capitalization of altcoins to plummet from $1 trillion at the beginning of this year to $600 billion. This decline seems to have affected all sectors, with significant value shrinkage experienced across various fields.

Institutional funds have once again experienced a small-scale net outflow, and a sense of panic pervades the global market. The market capitalization of stablecoins has slightly decreased, reflecting a significant increase in investors' risk-averse tendencies.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score has fallen below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are overall in a state of loss. Currently, this indicator is at 1.6, close to the market bottom range.

Futures Market Situation

The funding rate for this futures period remains at a low level of 0.00%. The open interest continues to decline, indicating that the main funds in the market are withdrawing. The long-short ratio for futures is 1.9, showing that market sentiment leans towards greed, but the reference value of this indicator has diminished.

Spot Market Dynamics

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility this week, while other cryptocurrencies lacked new investment narratives. The pressure on global financial markets continues to grow due to increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies. This weak trend has spread to almost all asset classes, and the crypto asset market is no exception, deeply trapped in a bear market.