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PPI is soaring, is the Federal Reserve still looking to cut interest rates? This is like oil prices skyrocketing but wanting to fill up the tank.
Brothers, the US PPI in July has exploded, far exceeding market expectations. This is akin to an appetizer for CPI, a signal flare for interest rate hikes, and a resistance wall against rate cuts. On one hand, the market wants to indulge in the sweet dessert of rate cuts, while on the other hand, the inflation side is firmly holding up the flag stating "prices have not stabilized yet." This situation is just like wanting to fill up with 92 octane gas when oil prices soar to $9—sure, you can fill up, but your wallet will cry.
The Federal Reserve is now like being caught between two mountains: on one side is inflation, and on the other is a weak economy. Lowering interest rates is a good thing, as it can give the stock market and cryptocurrencies a shot in the arm, but the PPI far exceeds expectations, which means that production costs for businesses are still rising. In the future, this may be passed on to the consumer side, and the CPI may also become restless. In other words, if the Fed lowers interest rates now, it is very likely to be slapped back by inflation.
Of course, Wall Street doesn't care about all this, as long as the Federal Reserve dares to inject liquidity, money will flow. The problem is, Powell himself is afraid of becoming the "culprit of inflation's resurrection." Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in September was cut in half right on the spot by this PPI data, unless the CPI miraculously drops in the next month, or the employment data goes south, otherwise, a rate cut is likely to be postponed.
The crypto market is indeed very dramatic—when Bitcoin heard that the PPI exceeded expectations, it first pretended to be scared and dropped for a while, only to realize that the Federal Reserve didn't directly turn off the tap, and then it started to surge. This operation tells us: no matter how noisy the macro environment is, as long as liquidity expectations remain, the crypto world dares to take risks. After all, the motto of the crypto world is very simple—one can still celebrate even if the water hasn't arrived.