The Fed has recently been embroiled in a fierce internal debate. At the July monetary policy meeting, two members openly expressed their disagreement with the current interest rate levels, highlighting the divisions within the decision-making body. Stephen Moore, a member appointed by Trump, seems to hold a dovish stance, adding uncertainty to the meeting. Meanwhile, the White House is also exerting political pressure in an attempt to influence the Central Bank's decisions.

Besant further proposed a radical interest rate cut, calling for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, a suggestion that raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The market reacted even more violently, with traders pushing the expected probability of a rate cut in September up to 96%. UBS analyst Heffler even directly suggested a 100 basis point cut in September.

However, the economic data seems to contradict these aggressive expectations. The core inflation rate has risen to 3.1%, and the employment data is also unsatisfactory, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added in the past three months, plummeting to 19,000 in May. This data suggests that the Fed may not have as much room for significant rate cuts as the market expects.

In fact, the flow of funds and trading behavior are the main driving forces of the market. ETFs, institutional investors, and large compliant funds are positioning themselves based on risk and return, and their decisions are not easily influenced by public opinion.

In this market game, what truly matters are substantive indicators such as on-chain data, chip structure, and capital flow. For instance, the capital flow of Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, the concentration of positions, and the cash-out pressure of early investors are factors that have a greater impact on market direction than news headlines.

Despite the massive market hype, investors need to remain calm and not be led by public opinion. When assessing market trends, more attention should be paid to hard indicators such as price fluctuations, capital flows, and chip structure, rather than being misled by superficial noise.