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Recently, there have been notable changes in the U.S. financial markets. As consumer price inflation data aligns with market expectations, the U.S. Treasury bond market shows an upward trend, while at the same time, the dollar has experienced a significant decline against a basket of currencies.
These series of changes have sparked market speculation about the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates in September. Specifically, after the release of the CPI data, the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities have seen a significant decline, with the two-year Treasury bond showing the most pronounced decrease, falling by 6 basis points to 3.71%.
It is worth noting that traders' expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve have significantly increased. The market generally believes that at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has exceeded 80%.
These market trends reflect a changing perspective among investors regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy, while also demonstrating the profound impact of monetary policy adjustments on financial markets. The future direction of the Federal Reserve's policies will continue to be the focus of market attention, and its decisions will have significant implications for the global economy.