This week's economic data will have a significant impact on the market's expectations for future monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday is undoubtedly the most closely watched economic indicator of the week. If the actual CPI data significantly exceeds market expectations, it may shake investors' confidence in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, adding uncertainty to the market outlook. In this case, the encryption market may face a new round of adjustment pressure.

On Wednesday, Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), will deliver a speech. His assessment of the current economic situation and any hints regarding future interest rate trends could quickly influence market sentiment and warrant close attention.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday, along with the industrial output and retail sales data on Friday, are equally crucial. These figures will provide us with the latest evidence of the momentum of the U.S. economy, particularly in helping us assess whether there are signs of a slowdown. These indicators will assist us in gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the inflation trends reflected in the CPI and the underlying economic health.

According to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market currently expects an 88.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. This probability may be slightly adjusted when the interest rate futures market reopens on Monday after the remarks of Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman (often viewed as hawkish) over the weekend.

The key is whether this high-probability expectation can last until the weekend. This will mainly depend on the actual results of important data such as the CPI mentioned above, as well as the tone of comments from Federal Reserve officials. Although the market has high expectations for a rate cut in September, it is still not fully certain at this point, and investors need to continue to pay attention to the latest macroeconomic news.

In this complex economic environment, participants in the cryptocurrency market should remain vigilant and closely monitor these key economic indicators and policy signals to timely adjust their investment strategies. At the same time, it should also be noted that although there may be fluctuations in the short term, cryptocurrency, as an emerging asset class, still has long-term development prospects that are worth paying attention to.