Global M2 money supply indicates that Bitcoin may peak in September.

New macro signals that emerged in early August could shape the overall market trend. Most notably, the global M2 supply — a key indicator reflecting liquidity in the global economy — has just confirmed a decline after reaching an all-time high.

What does this new M2 signal mean? Below are the latest analyses from experts.

Is the crypto market's rally about to end as global M2 money supply declines?

Data from Bgeometrics shows that the global M2 money supply peaked at $114.8 trillion at the end of June. By early August, this figure had fallen to $112.7 trillion, equivalent to a decline of 1.8%.

Although the decline is not too strong, investor Brett points out that the global M2 has formed both a "lower peak" and a "lower bottom." This pattern indicates a potential downward trend that may be forming.

Bitcoin price chart and M2 money supply with a lag of 84 days | Source: ₿rettThe chart provided by ₿rett shows a strong correlation between the Bitcoin price cycle and the global M2 money supply, with a lag of 84 days. Based on this model, he predicts that Bitcoin could reach its cycle peak by the end of September.

"Global M2 money supply has formed lower peaks and lower troughs. If a delay of 84 days is applied, the current peak is expected to occur by the end of September. As I mentioned in the article back in December, the three previous Bitcoin peaks occurred approximately 525–532 days after the halving event. The current global M2 peak occurs 518 days after the halving. Is it just a coincidence?" — ₿rett stated.

Analyst Master Kenobi made a similar prediction. He compared the price of Bitcoin with the global M2 supply using a 90-day lag. Based on this model, he expects the current Bitcoin cycle to end in October 2025, followed by a strong correction.

Bitcoin price chart and M2 money supply with a lag of 84 days | Source: Master Kenobi "The money supply seems to have peaked locally 31 days ago and is currently entering a declining phase... Based on M2 and current data, the bullish phase signaling the end of the cycle could occur from late September to early October," Master Kenobi predicts.

The recent fall of M2 seems to be making analysts more cautious.

However, not everyone is quick to jump to conclusions. Colin Talks Crypto agrees that this M2 decline is the strongest in the past 7 months, but also notes that the current data may not be truly reliable.

Source: Colin Talks CryptoColin also agrees that September and October could be sensitive periods. However, it cannot be ruled out that this is just a minor peak in the cycle.

"Rather than hastily concluding based on preliminary data, I believe that closely monitoring the global M2 money supply in the coming weeks is the best choice," Colin Talks Crypto shared.

Although forecasts based on a delay of 84–90 days and the halving cycle provide a promising picture, the crypto market is still strongly influenced by many other factors. Important economic events such as the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and global investor sentiment can all alter the current trend.

Dinh Dinh