Crypto Assets Market Analysis: Hacker Attacks and Geopolitical Impact

The crypto assets market has recently undergone significant adjustments, mainly influenced by two factors:

Micro Level: Continuous Large-Scale Fund Theft Incidents

Last week, the theft incident involving Bybit and the recent Infini incident raised concerns in the market. For Bybit, the loss of $1.5 billion is approximately equal to its net profit for a year, significantly impacting the company during its expansion phase. Based on Coinbase's financial data, it is estimated that Bybit's cash reserves are around $700 million to $1 billion, which is insufficient to fully cover the losses. This situation needs to be addressed through financing and other means, but it will increase future operating costs.

These events have limited impact on crypto assets traders who are used to high risks, but they have shaken the confidence of traditional investors. The outflow of funds from BTC ETFs shows that hacker attacks have triggered a significant amount of fund outflow, reflecting the concerns of traditional investors.

Macroscopic Level: Great Power Game and Changes in Global Economic Landscape

1. The issue of the U.S. fiscal deficit. The U.S. government needs to reshape fiscal discipline to address the deficit problem caused by pandemic stimulus and debt structure adjustments.

2. Concerns about stagflation risks in the United States. Government spending cuts may impact economic growth, while inflationary pressures still exist.

3. The impact of DeepSeek's open-source results on the US AI industry. It reduces computing power requirements, which may affect the performance of companies like Nvidia; it breaks the US monopoly on AI algorithms, influencing the valuations of companies like OpenAI.

4. The valuation of Chinese technology stocks is returning to normal. Benefiting from the manufacturing upgrade expectations brought by DeepSeek and the reduction of geopolitical risks, the valuation gap between Chinese and American companies is narrowing.

5. Uncertainty in the dollar's trend. The market has differing views on dollar policy, which will affect the pricing of global assets.

For investors, the current market uncertainty is relatively high. A barbell strategy can be adopted, on one hand, allocating to blue-chip Crypto Assets or low-risk DeFi projects, and on the other hand, taking small positions in high-volatility assets. Although there is downward pressure in the short term, there has not been any obvious systemic risk. If excessive corrections occur, it may be considered to buy on dips.