The structural slow bull of Bitcoin has begun.

The approval of the Bitcoin ETF at the end of 2023 became an important turning point. Since then, the market attributes of Bitcoin have begun to undergo a qualitative change, gradually transforming from a purely risky asset into a safe-haven asset. Currently, Bitcoin is in the early stages of becoming a safe-haven asset, while the United States is also about to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which creates a favorable growth environment for Bitcoin.

In this context, Bitcoin is showing new operational characteristics: whenever there are signs of market correction after emotions become overheated, new funds flow in, preventing the formation of a downward trend. Bitcoin has become the "only certain asset to bet on." As long as the expectation of easing remains, and ETFs continue to absorb funds, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to form a traditional bear market, experiencing at most periodic corrections or short-term fluctuations due to unexpected events.

This means that Bitcoin will function as a "quasi-safe haven asset" throughout the entire interest rate cut cycle, and its price anchoring logic will gradually shift from "risk appetite driven" to "macro certainty support." Over time, with the maturation of ETFs and the increase in institutional allocation weights, Bitcoin is expected to complete its initial transformation from a risk asset to a safe haven asset.

In the upcoming interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin is likely to truly become a "safe haven" that the market trusts for the first time. This will not only enhance its allocation status in traditional markets but may also gain some capital siphoning effect in competition with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, thereby initiating a structural slow bull cycle that spans over a decade.

Tariff Policy: A Positive Adjustment Tool for Bitcoin

The main purpose of the tariff policy frequently proposed by Trump is to determine the attitudes of allies and exchange for security protection, rather than simply increasing tax revenue. Tariffs are seen as an "abnormal tool for intervening in the market," used in special circumstances during crises or confrontations. The United States is trying to restructure the global trade system into a "friend-shoring trade network" centered around the U.S., maintaining the exclusivity and loyalty of this network through means such as tariffs.

However, the tariff policy also carries potential risks, such as imported inflation and countermeasures from trade partners. When tariffs threaten the capital markets and the interest costs of the U.S. government, Trump quickly adjusts his strategy. Therefore, the impact of tariff policy on Bitcoin prices is more like a benign adjustment tool rather than a factor that can solely trigger a black swan event.

The Changing Status of the Dollar and the Rise of Crypto

The trend of global economic multipolarity is reshaping the relative position of the US dollar. The rapid development of other economies, especially the growth of financial self-organizing systems in Asia and the Middle East, is eroding the global liquidity advantage and settlement monopoly of the dollar. Recent fiscal and monetary operations in the United States also show a trend of credit overdraw, further undermining the "uniqueness" and "necessity" of the dollar.

The rapid development of the crypto system poses challenges to the traditional currency system, forcing sovereign currency systems to make strategic adjustments. The passage of the GENIUS Act can be seen as the United States' response to the financial logic of this new era.

GENIUS Act: Strategic Compromise of the United States

The GENIUS Act reflects the United States' recognition of the paradigm shift in currency governance brought about by Crypto, representing a "strategic compromise of retreat to advance." By establishing a predictable compliance framework, the United States aims to reintegrate the development of USD stablecoins into regulatory oversight, ensuring that USD assets are not marginalized in future on-chain currency competition.

The significance of this bill lies in the fact that the United States is beginning to explore a new type of currency expansion mechanism that extends the original shadow currency logic through on-chain systems. It lays the foundation for constructing a multi-tiered credit expansion system for the "on-chain dollar", while also implicitly acknowledging the sustainability of the on-chain shadow currency structure.

New Market Indicators and Investment Strategies

In the new market trajectory of Bitcoin, the traditional concept of bull and bear cycles is gradually becoming ineffective. Investors need to pay attention to the highs and lows of market sentiment as a basis for judging the phase of Bitcoin. The changes in the relationship between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) can reflect the shifts in market sentiment.

LTH-RPC( Long-term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio ) and STH-RPC( Short-term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio ) have become important market indicators. When long-term holders begin to show widespread losses, it often signals that the market is approaching a temporary low point. Conversely, when short-term holders transition from losses to profits, it indicates that market confidence is recovering.

In the current market environment, traditional bear market signals may be difficult to trigger. The long-cycle slow bull structure of Bitcoin is composed of multiple policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, technological changes, and market sentiment. As long as its "asset attribute evolution" path remains clear, Bitcoin is expected to become the most certain participant in the global capital revaluation wave.