Analysis of the Process and Impact of the U.S. Election Results Announced

In the coming week, the world will focus on the U.S. elections. This article outlines the upcoming timelines, key highlights, and anticipates the subsequent impacts. Overall, starting from Tuesday, November 5th, the election results will be announced successively during the week, and the progress of the results will continue to affect asset prices.

Timeline for the Announcement of the US Election Results

Due to the policy differences among states regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there is varying degrees of delay in the announcement of election results. The overall election process is as follows:

1. Election Day: The Tuesday after the first Monday in November, when voters cast their ballots for presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

2. Electoral College Voting: The United States uses the Electoral College system, with a total of 538 electoral votes. A candidate must receive at least 270 votes to win.

3. Electoral College Official Voting: On the second Monday of December, the members of the Electoral College officially vote to elect the President and Vice President.

4. Congress Certification: On January 6 of the following year, the new Congress convened to officially tally the results of the Electoral College votes.

5. Presidential Inauguration: On January 20, the elected President and Vice President take their oath of office, starting their four-year term.

After the voting ends on November 5 (U.S. time), states will begin counting the votes. However, some key states may delay the announcement of results:

• California: Allows for a longer mail-in ballot receipt period, which may delay the announcement of complete results.
• Pennsylvania: Mail-in ballots will only be processed on Election Day, resulting in a slower counting process.
• Michigan and Wisconsin: Mail-in ballots will be processed on Election Day, and it may take until the evening of the following day to complete.
• Nevada: Allows mail-in ballots to be received several days after Election Day, which may delay results by a few days.
• North Carolina: Allows mail-in ballots to be received within 9 days after Election Day, with results typically announced a week later.

The Importance of House Elections

Apart from the presidential election, the results of the House of Representatives elections are equally crucial, as they determine the implementation of future U.S. fiscal policy. As the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives has the following main powers:

• Legislation: Drafting and voting on bills, completing legislative functions in conjunction with the Senate.
• Fiscal authority: All fiscal and tax bills must be introduced in the House of Representatives first.
• Impeachment Power: Can impeach the president or federal officials.

The distribution of political parties in the House of Representatives determines the difficulty for the president to implement economic policies. If the president's party does not hold a majority of the seats, it is referred to as a "minority president," making it extremely difficult to push through legislation. House elections are held every two years, coinciding with the presidential election on the same day. Due to the smaller electoral districts, the results of the House elections are usually announced earlier than those of the presidential election.

Potential Impact of Election Results

Based on the economic policies of both parties, it can be predicted that the impact of the election results may be:

If the Democratic candidate is elected:

• The "Trump trade" may quickly collapse, and the Bitcoin price may pull back.
• It may subsequently re-enter a stage of fluctuating upward movement.
• Asset similar to security tokens may be influenced by the wealth effect, leading to a bull market, similar to the widespread rally after the pandemic stimulus in 2021.

If the Republican candidate is elected:

• The price of Bitcoin may experience profit-taking in the short term, but it could quickly open an upward channel afterwards.
• Other cryptocurrency markets may find it difficult to experience a全面牛市, and more so to undertake the wealth effect brought about by Bitcoin's appreciation.
• Capital may rotate between multiple hot sectors, similar to the market trend after the end of 2023.

If a "minority president" situation occurs:

• The implementation of economic policies will become more complex.
• The competition between the two parties over economic policy will intensify.
• The introduction of any bill will trigger intense market competition, and price volatility may increase significantly.

In conclusion, regardless of the election results, market volatility may increase in the near future, and investors need to closely monitor policy developments and manage risks effectively.