Macroeconomic Finance and Encryption Asset Market April Analysis Report

Macroeconomics: "The Equal Tariff War" Triggers Market Volatility

In April, the global financial markets experienced severe fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, a certain country's leader announced an increase in tariffs on global commodities, triggering panic selling in the markets. The three major U.S. stock indices all fell below their yearly averages, and the bond and foreign exchange markets also saw significant volatility. However, as the leader of that country softened their stance and economic data showed relatively strong performance, market sentiment gradually stabilized.

At the end of the month, the S&P 500 and the encryption market have recovered from the declines caused by the tariff war. However, for the market to achieve a fundamental reversal, the tariff dispute still needs to be resolved and economic data must be further confirmed. Overall, in April, the Nasdaq rose by 0.85%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.76%, and the Dow Jones dropped by 3.17%.

Encryption Assets: BTC Strong Rebound Up 14.11%

In April, the Bitcoin trend can be called a model of "reverse trading." At the beginning of the month, it fell sharply due to the impact of the trade war, but then it rebounded strongly with the support of billions in capital. Throughout the month, BTC rose by 14.11% to $94,182, with a volatility of up to 26.12%.

On the technical side, BTC has confirmed the long-term trend by bouncing three times off the yearly line during the crash and broke through the 200-day line on the 22nd, returning to the "Trump bottom" range. Compared to the US stock market, BTC's performance is stronger, thanks to factors such as the adjustment that began in March, increased holdings by long-term holders, and favorable policy support.

Chip Structure: Long-term Holders Increase Holdings, Short-term Floating Loss Pressure Eases

In April, the group of long-term holders shifted from selling to increasing their holdings. Large holders with 100-1000 BTC also continued to increase their positions, adding over 80,000 BTC throughout the month. The BTC supply on exchanges decreased by about 60,000 BTC.

Comparing the chip distribution at the end of January and the end of April, the focus of the chips in the range of $74,000 to $100,000 has significantly shifted downward, improving the market structure. Currently, only 14% of BTC is in a state of floating loss, and the floating loss pressure on short-term holders has been greatly alleviated.

Capital Situation: Over 10 Billion USD Inflow Rescues the Situation

In the first half of April, the tariff war triggered an overall outflow of funds. However, as the situation eased in mid-month, a large amount of funds began to be accumulated. The net inflow for the entire month reached 8.4 billion USD, making it the sixth largest inflow month since the current bull market began. If we include the 2.2 billion USD increase in a certain listed company, the inflow of funds in April exceeded 10 billion USD.

Conclusion

After a quarter of adjustment, the internal structure of the encryption market has become more stable. Long-term holders have increased their holdings, and the pressure of short-term floating losses has been eliminated, providing support for the market's upward movement. However, external uncertainties still exist, especially the potential impact of tariff disputes on the global economy.