Go for it! Prime Minister Ishiba, a good bet on the odds | Strategy Report | Moneyクリ MoneyX Securities investment information and media useful for money.

I have criticized Ishiba-san for "not doing anything" until now. In the previous strategy report (dated July 7, "The Upcoming House of Councillors Election and the Stock Market"), I wrote that even if the ruling party loses in the House of Councillors election, the stock market might rise. The reason is that the Ishiba administration has effectively done nothing, so it would be better if such a government stepped down, and thus the stock prices might rise.

I never expected such a statement from Mr. Ishiba.

"This is a battle for national interests. We cannot be underestimated." On the 9th, during a street speech in front of JR Funabashi Station, Prime Minister Ishiba stated this and strongly urged, "We must say what we need to say, even to our allies, in a straightforward manner."

"I won't be underestimated" is impressive. If you've finally found the motivation to act, I want to support you (although it feels a bit late).

Of course, there will be criticism. Democratic Party for the People leader Tamaki criticized Prime Minister Ishiba's statement "How dare they look down on us" on the 10th. He told reporters, "Using harsh words against an opponent in a situation where there is none, as an election strategy, is detrimental to smooth negotiations. It goes against national interests."

You are absolutely right.

The stock market may also be expressing concerns. Yesterday, on July 10, the Nikkei average fell. The news that NVIDIA became the first company in the world to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion did not lead to a rise in Japanese stocks. For no apparent reason, Japanese stocks declined. Perhaps the stock market is wary that Prime Minister Ishiba's remarks could potentially lead to a deterioration in Japan-US relations.

It might be a possible story.

However, it is. No matter what the opposition says, or how much the stock prices adjust, it doesn't matter. After all, the leader of a country has boldly declared "I won't be looked down upon like this." Let's believe and entrust this. Surely, they didn't just say that without any thoughts or strategies on how to negotiate with the United States from now on, just relying on momentum. I repeat, these are the words of a nation's leader.

Let’s bet on Ishiba’s spirit here. What are we betting on? Don’t ask such a dull question. It’s obviously buying stocks. If we’re going to buy, it’s better to go for the automotive stocks that have been sluggish.

This is actually a good bet.

This is because there is almost no downside, and if all goes well, there will be a significant upside. It's an opportunity to bet heavily skewed towards the upside. Professional poker players do not miss such asymmetric betting opportunities.

Trust and expectations towards the Japanese government are not high based on the history of negotiations so far. Even if the 25% mutual tariffs indicated the other day are implemented as is on August 1, the market has likely already factored that in, thinking "it can't be helped." The same goes for automobile tariffs. Automobile stocks have remained sluggish and have not kept up with the overall market rebound. Therefore, even if Ishiba's ambitions come to nothing, the stock prices are unlikely to drop significantly as expectations were not high to begin with.

On the other hand, if there is a "last-minute home run" (a clichéd expression, but it means that either mutual tariffs or automobile tariffs, or both, are lowered), stock prices would likely soar.

The United States also understands the circumstances of Japan's House of Councillors election. The results of the House of Councillors election will likely end in a significant defeat for the ruling party. During the ten days leading up to August 1, Mr. Ishiba is expected to negotiate with the United States in a last-ditch effort. Let's take a gamble on that. In this situation, betting on an improvement in the Japan-U.S. trade negotiations and buying stocks is a distorted bet that is advantageous to investors, as the downside is limited and the upside is substantial.

That's why, do your best! Prime Minister Ishiba!