The stablecoin Supercycle may be starting, the era of the dollar mint tax is coming to an end.

Non-dollarization, fractional reserve and interest-bearing stablecoins ( YBS ) may become the main direction for the future development of stablecoins. Although non-full-reserve stablecoins are still in the theoretical stage, driven by capital efficiency, fractional reserve stablecoins are likely to become mainstream in the market. Non-dollar stablecoins are still in the experimental stage, and the global monetary status of the dollar is still widely recognized. For the sake of maintaining industrial capacity and employment, the renminbi will not undergo large-scale internationalization in the short term, and the replacement of the dollar will be a long process.

This article mainly analyzes the overall situation of YBS, which is a blockchain stablecoin system based on the US dollar and fully reserved. This system embodies the basic form of non-fully reserved stablecoins in the post-dollar era.

The issuance of the US dollar is essentially a back-and-forth operation between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, amplifying the money multiplier through the credit relationships of commercial banks, resulting in different levels of money circulation. In this model, US Treasury bonds become the global financial pricing basis, the US dollar becomes the world currency, at the cost of the US's external deficit and various countries' dependence on the dollar.

The tariff policy of the Trump administration is undermining this cycle, as countries begin to flee the US debt market, and the dollar and US debt are turning into a risk asset. The seigniorage collected from the dollar globally may face a death spiral similar to LUNA-UST, but the time span will be longer.

The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is "fake", while the issuance of stablecoins is "real". The $2.7 trillion market cap of cryptocurrencies is merely a sense of the market's "capacity", while the $230 billion in stablecoins at least has real reserves backing it. As some stablecoins align with USDC, fully or over-collateralized stablecoins based on on-chain assets have effectively vanished. The other side of real reserves is a significant reduction in capital efficiency or the money multiplier.

In this architecture, YBS has practical significance because it can mint the volatility of cryptocurrencies into stablecoins. But this is just a theory; in reality, it has never come true. 230 billion stablecoins need to provide liquidity and entry and exit channels for a 2.7 trillion market.

The hedging model of USDe is actually very simple. It allows issuers to deposit interest-bearing assets, and Ethena opens a short position on a centralized perpetual contract exchange. Historically, long positions usually provide funding to short positions, and the funding rate arbitrage has become the native protocol yield of Ethena.

Ethena is still trying to further mimic the real dollar system. The core scenario of USDe is its adoption rate in areas such as trading and payment, beyond "staking and wealth management". The alliance of ENA and centralized exchanges is crucial; for reference, Circle shares profits with Coinbase and Binance for holding USDC, and ENA essentially has to undertake the important task of "maintaining" the authorized issuers.

The yield of YBS is essentially the liability of the protocol, fundamentally a customer acquisition cost. More users need to recognize it as an equivalent to the US dollar, holding it themselves rather than putting it into the staking system, to sustain it. Currently, the YBS yield on Ethereum mainly comes from Ethena and Pendle, in stark contrast to the past returns that easily reached thousands of times.

The era of low-interest wealth management has arrived, but it is not safe. On-chain yields require strong secondary liquidity support; without enough user participation, yield guarantees could become the last straw that breaks the YBS project.

Only when the vast majority of people use YBS as a stablecoin, rather than pursuing profits, can YBS occupy the usage space of USDT while maintaining a high yield. Otherwise, if all users pursue profits, the source of income will disappear, whether it is through rate arbitrage or US Treasury bonds on-chain, there needs to be a counterparty that incurs a loss of income or principal.