Bitcoin Million Dollar Journey: Global Macroeconomic Environment and Market Analysis

The essence of the China-US trade war is a long-term trend, with increased volatility supporting Bitcoin prices to break one million.

The China-U.S. trade war reflects the long-term trend of global bifurcation. Trump accelerated this process, and the Biden administration has continued and strengthened the relevant policies. The increase in market volatility will trigger policy responses that support the rise in Bitcoin prices. The U.S. finds it difficult to bear the pain of de-globalization, and this process may last for 20 years.

Finance is the Star: Trump’s Policy Stress Test and the Path to a Million Dollar Bitcoin

The Trump administration is testing the market's bottom line through continuous probing, thereby adjusting the pace of policy advancement. Fiscal policy will become the dominant factor, and it is expected that the fiscal deficit will continue to expand during Trump's term. Factors such as an aging population and increased social security expenditures will drive up the scale of the deficit. Bitcoin is expected to transition from "high Beta assets in the Nasdaq" to "a tool to hedge against the decline of American exceptionalism" during this process.

The Liquidity Frenzy in 2026 May Push Bitcoin to $250,000

The period of extremely loose monetary policy may occur in 2026-2027, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $250,000. At that time, tools such as QE, relaxation of leverage ratios, and government bond repurchase may be used simultaneously. The market may peak in 2026-2027 and then correct. Bitcoin is still expected to reach $1,000,000 before 2028.

Bull Market Rotation Logic: Bitcoin Breaking New High Triggers Altcoin Season Signal

After Bitcoin returns to its historical peak, funds will start to rotate into altcoins. The dominance of Bitcoin may fall back to the range of 40%-70%. With the increase in trading volume and improvement in technical patterns, the market will enter a phase of searching for high-risk, high-reward projects.

Strategic Reserve Fantasy Shattered: The U.S. Cannot "Directly Print Money to Buy Bitcoin"

The possibility of national-level strategic reserves directly purchasing Bitcoin is extremely low, especially for deficit countries like the United States. What is more likely to occur is that companies will indirectly hold Bitcoin by emulating the MicroStrategy model, providing institutional investors with exposure to crypto assets.