The Bitcoin ecosystem welcomes the year of Programmability, and the US dollar stablecoin will reshape the financial order

As a pioneer and long-term witness in the blockchain industry, Du Jun's name is almost intertwined with every key wave: from co-founding a trading platform in 2013 and promoting the early adoption of Bitcoin in China; to creating industry media and becoming a central node for information circulation; and then, as an investor, accurately capturing multiple cycles of opportunities. With a keen judgment of technology trends and a long-term approach to capital operations, he has written countless classic cases in the industry.

Today, he has founded an incubator focused on the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency innovation, remaining at the forefront of the industry—at the crossroads where the Bitcoin ecosystem, stablecoin changes, and the AI wave meet, continuously exploring the boundaries of technology, and firmly optimistic about the rise of Chinese individuals in the global technology landscape.

Recently, industry media founders engaged in an in-depth dialogue with this benchmark figure who has traversed through bull and bear markets. In this intellectual clash about the future, Du Jun not only shared his deep analysis of the underlying logic of blockchain but also publicly explained for the first time why he sees BitVM as a "key leap" in the Bitcoin ecosystem, predicting that 2026 will become the "year of programmable Bitcoin." When discussing the Hong Kong stablecoin sandbox and the regulatory game with the United States, he calmly showcased the judicious judgment of a capital strategist.

The Golden Age of Chinese Technology

Du Jun believes that now is indeed an era full of opportunities, where Chinese people are in a globally leading position in multiple cutting-edge technological fields, especially in the blockchain industry, where the advantages are particularly prominent.

Exchanges are almost entirely dominated by the Chinese, and the same goes for mining machine manufacturing. Public chain projects like Tron, Ethereum, Solana, and BNBChain also have a large number of Chinese backgrounds among their founding teams and executives. Looking around in the circle of friends, whether it is exchanges, mining machine manufacturers, or wallet applications, you can almost always see the presence of Chinese people.

This influence has expanded from blockchain to a broader technology sector: in Silicon Valley, leaders of Chinese descent are frequently emerging in the AI and semiconductor industries, such as Dr. Lisa Su and Jensen Huang, who are playing a decisive role in their respective fields. Compared to a decade ago when Indian engineers dominated, today's "Chinese dividend" is becoming the new main theme. For this reason, he chooses to stay frequently in Silicon Valley to personally experience and participate in this structural rise.

According to Du Jun, Chinese people not only possess technological innovation capabilities in key technology sectors such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy, but are also gradually moving towards the capital decision-making level and industry leading positions. This comprehensive rise signifies that the "golden age of Chinese technology" has arrived, and it also means that Chinese people will play an increasingly important role in the global technological competition landscape.

The Positioning and Future of Public Chains

When discussing the landscape of public chains, Du Jun believes that currently there are only four core public chains that have truly established themselves: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, and Solana. Their advantages lie not only in the technology itself but also in their respective clear market positioning:

• Bitcoin is digital gold, it goes without saying;
• Ethereum has become the de facto standard for DeFi infrastructure;
• TRON focuses on stablecoin transfers and settlements, with strong scenario implementation in the payment field;
• Solana is positioned as a high-performance, low-latency Meme public chain, focusing on an extreme user experience and liquidity hotspots.

The reason these public chains have made it to today is not due to a "one-size-fits-all" function package, but rather clear strategic choices. In contrast, many other public chains either have ambiguous positioning or mediocre technology, making it difficult to break through across cycles.

As for whether new public chains will be needed in the future, Du Jun's judgment is: there is no need in the short term. The Layer 1 solution of Ethereum has significantly improved scalability, reduced costs, and enhanced interoperability between assets. Apart from a very few Layer 2 projects like Base that have emerged, most have long been silent. It's like a Swiss Army knife; the functions that are truly used frequently are actually just a few. The market's desire for "new public chains" is often a pseudo-demand magnified by imagination. At least in the next five years, he does not believe that many new public chains are needed—even five years later, we may not necessarily see structural changes.

Du Jun emphasized that the core competitiveness of public chains lies in strategic positioning and the closed loop of real use cases, rather than in the stacking of concepts and quantity expansion. His analysis of the current public chain ecosystem reflects the industry's higher demands for efficiency and practicality.

The Cycle of Exchanges and Missed Investment Opportunities

Talking about the investment opportunities in the current bull market cycle, Du Jun admitted that he is optimistic about Hyperliquid, but regrettably missed the investment. There are two reasons: first, they do not accept external investments, and the team has hardly taken external funding. Secondly, he did not buy their coin in the early stages; by the time he bought it, it had already risen to 15 dollars, missing the best opportunity. In the past, he could always time it right, but this time he was distracted by researching AI and other fields, and did not focus enough energy to invest adequately in the primary market.

Du Jun mentioned that institutions such as ABCDE have performed well in branding and investment, indicating that the primary market still has potential, but precise judgment and resource investment are needed.

Bitcoin Ecosystem: From Sentiment to Programmable Future

When talking about the Bitcoin ecosystem, Du Jun mentioned that there are some sentiments involved. Before 2017, the main trading platforms primarily traded Bitcoin and Litecoin, and in the early days, there was even only Bitcoin. At that time, the focus was on promoting Bitcoin's immutability, traceability, and distribution characteristics, but programmability was rarely mentioned. After the emergence of Ethereum, the emphasis was placed on the programmability of blockchain and the space for innovation. The Bitcoin community was once divided into two factions: one faction debated scalability, leading to forks like BCH and BSV; the other faction hoped for Bitcoin to be programmable, functional like Ethereum.

For many years, the Programmability route technology was immature, until the rise of inscriptions and runes in 2023. In Du Jun's view, it lacked long-term value support, and he did not participate. Later, the BitVM protocol proposed achieving Bitcoin programmability through a white paper, which he found very interesting. Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset, but liquidity is difficult to release. Ethereum has derivative financial products like MakerDAO and Aave, while Bitcoin's WBTC relies on centralized institutions, which poses risks. Technologies like BitVM attempt to realize decentralized minting and redemption, validate through joint mining pools, and create assets similar to YBTC for on-chain scenarios.

Du Jun stated that they have invested in multiple routes such as BitVM, RGB++, World Lock, and Lightning. As long as programmability can be achieved, he supports it. Currently, the BitVM route is clear, with high code quality, and the first step towards decentralized minting and redemption is expected to be realized before September this year, with a complete solution possibly visible next year. The development cycle is long, but there is already a glimmer of hope, with the Bitlayer team having 30 to 40 full-time technicians continuously iterating.

Du Jun is optimistic about the Programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem, believing it is a trend as these technological routes have begun to be realized and are not a castle in the air. The Programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem is not only a technological breakthrough but also the key to unlocking its $2 trillion liquidity.

The "Religion" of Bitcoin and the Battle for Decentralization

When asked if there is a coin that can become the "second Bitcoin", Du Jun stated that, logically speaking, new coins may emerge in the future, as nothing is impossible. However, subjectively, he feels it is very difficult. Bitcoin and Ethereum are completely different concepts. Bitcoin is a belief, like a religion, representing digital gold and priceless freedom. You can say it is worth 10,000, 100,000, or even 1 trillion dollars, because it is irreplaceable, embodying a fundamental culture and belief. If Ethereum loses DeFi projects and its transaction volume drops from 5 million to 500,000, it may be sold off, but Bitcoin will not. In the early days, they called it "recharging faith", which is the logic behind it. In the short term, it is unlikely for any coin to replace Bitcoin's position.

Du Jun compares Bitcoin to a "religion", emphasizing its unique cultural and belief attributes. He believes that although its decentralized nature is questioned, it is still difficult to replace.

Industry Changes: From Belief to Stark Reality

Looking back at the changes in the industry, Du Jun stated that he bought Bitcoin in 2012 and participated in the establishment of a trading platform in 2013. In the early days, it was necessary to make users interested in Bitcoin, discussing its technological reliability and asset allocation, etc. At that time, there weren't many application scenarios, and the price fluctuations were not significant; it relied on technology and the concept of digital gold to attract users. By 2015, he was talking about Bitcoin with local governments, and from 2018 to 2022, he was still discussing it in Singapore, with a sense of achievement gradually fading. It is not that the world has not progressed, but that we have not progressed; we are still discussing Bitcoin after more than a decade. It's like not discussing the HTTP protocol with parents, but talking about how mobile internet makes life convenient. Blockchain should also focus on application scenarios.

Two years ago, Du Jun discovered that stablecoins are a breakthrough point, with high efficiency and low cost for cross-border transfers. Traditional transfers take 1 to 4 days and cost between 18 to 25 dollars, while transfers on Ethereum only cost between 0.25 to 1 dollar. Last year, the total transfer volume of USDT and USDC reached 27 trillion dollars, exceeding that of some large payment companies which was between 25 to 26 trillion, demonstrating the promotion of economic efficiency by blockchain.

There have been several key moments in history: the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2008, the Ethereum ICO in 2017 that granted equal rights to currency issuance, the DeFi Summer in 2020 that achieved on-chain decentralized finance, and the promotion of stablecoins from 2014 to 2017. However, this cycle lacks innovation, with only Meme and Tap2earn projects that harvest users rather than create value, leading to a dull industry. Without incremental users and assets, exchanges struggle to rise. New assets create new exchanges, as NFT assets gave rise to Opensea, while this round of Meme assets has spawned GMGN, Axiom, and others. If the industry is left with only Meme and Tap2earn, it could mean 'game over'.

Du Jun reflects on the lack of innovation in the industry, believing that applications such as stablecoins are the hope for the future, rather than mere speculative logic.

The Success and Future of Stablecoins

When it comes to stablecoins, Du Jun stated that studying the history of currency issuance is quite interesting. In the early days, shells and gold were used, and each country had its own currency after forming. In a free competition market, the US dollar and gold prevailed; nobody chose the Zimbabwean dollar or the Hong Kong dollar. Within a sovereign country, the currency is enforced by the government, but in global circulation, the US dollar dominates. The future will break through sovereignty into free competition, and the US dollar stablecoin has the greatest advantage. Gold stablecoins are unstable due to their investment properties. USDT prevails because of its wide range of scenarios and high acceptance. Hong Kong paper money is issued by three banks, and the US does not care who issues the US dollar stablecoin, as long as it is anchored to US dollar assets. Currently, the usage scenarios of the Hong Kong dollar, Singapore dollar, and Cambodian riel are limited, and online expansion still faces challenges. Stablecoins need scenario support; for instance, if some large tech companies issue coins without scenarios, it is also difficult to succeed.

Regarding the de-dollarization facing the dominance of the US dollar, Du Jun believes that the scale of stablecoins could rise from hundreds of billions to 3 trillion USD, which is possible. However, at this stage, stablecoins are used for payments and arbitrage. The issuance of stablecoins is not for buying other coins, but rather for arbitrage. In reality, the USD interest is 2%, US Treasury bonds yield 4%, and on-chain arbitrage can reach several points. This drains funds from other cryptocurrencies, impacting their prices. Whether it will become a reservoir in the future remains to be observed, and he is not very optimistic.

Regarding the GENIUS Act in the United States and the issue of Hong Kong allowing various stablecoins, Du Jun stated that he has not researched it, as there are no plans to issue stablecoins. The most profitable aspects of blockchain are exchanges, stablecoins, and public chains, but wanting to do something and being able to do it are two different things. Stablecoins require scenario support, and certain mainstream stablecoins have succeeded due to their scenarios, while dozens of others have failed.

This dialogue showcases Du Jun's extraordinary journey from university to blockchain pioneer. With profound sentiment and forward-looking vision, he outlines the industry's changes and future blueprint. From the "religious" belief in Bitcoin to the technological breakthroughs in Programmability, his expectations for the Bitcoin ecosystem in 2026 are exhilarating; from the precise positioning of public chains to the dollar dominance of stablecoins, he analyzes the core logic of the market; from the lack of industry innovation to the rise of Chinese technology, he calls for a return to value creation, igniting new hope for the industry. Frequent shuttling between