Weekly BTC Observation ( From February 10 to 16, ): The market is waiting for direction selection amid low fluctuation.

This week, the Bitcoin market exhibited low fluctuation and a consolidation trend, with prices still operating within the range of 89000 to 110000 USD. The week opened at 96481.47 USD and closed at 96119.88 USD on Friday, marking a slight decline of 0.37% for the week, with the amplitude narrowing to 5% and a noticeable shrinkage in trading volume.

Despite the release of the January CPI data in the US, the implementation of new tariff policies, and the semi-annual monetary policy testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the impact on the cryptocurrency market and US stocks has been limited. The effects of these events seem to have been absorbed previously.

It is worth noting that as the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" negotiations make progress, market sentiment is gradually turning optimistic. The US dollar index fell sharply by 1.22% to 106.813, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped to 4.48%, and all three major stock indices recorded gains for the week. Among them, the Nasdaq saw the largest increase at 2.58%.

In terms of macroeconomics, the US CPI data for January exceeded expectations across the board, indicating that the economy remains strong and inflation has rebounded. This may further delay expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Currently, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once around December. Powell reiterated in his congressional testimony that if economic growth continues and inflation does not rapidly decline, the Federal Reserve may maintain its current policy for a period of time.

In the Bitcoin market, selling pressure has significantly weakened compared to last week. Both short-term and long-term holders sold a total of 137,178 BTC, a substantial decrease from before. The trading volume on exchanges has also contracted, indicating that short-term panic sentiment has largely eased. Currently, the average profit level for short-term holders has dropped to 6%, with insufficient motivation for profit-taking or stop-loss. Long-term holders have paused selling this week, increasing their holdings by 8,000 BTC.

In terms of capital flow, stablecoins and Bitcoin spot ETFs, as well as Ethereum spot ETFs, experienced a net outflow of $252 million over the week. Among them, stablecoins saw an inflow of $362 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs saw outflows of $584 million and $29 million respectively. The outflow of funds from ETFs is the main reason for Bitcoin's weaker performance compared to U.S. stocks.

Overall, the Bitcoin price is still fluctuating in a narrow range near the key support level, and it is expected to make a directional choice soon. Although market sentiment has improved somewhat, further confirmation is still needed. Investors should closely monitor subsequent macroeconomic data and changes in the geopolitical situation to manage risks appropriately.