Ancient Bitcoin Address Activation Triggers Market Fluctuation

Recently, 8 dormant Bitcoin addresses that had been inactive for 14 years suddenly became active, holding a total of 80,000 Bitcoins, which caused a brief panic in the market. According to analysis, these addresses may belong to an independent miner from 2011, who received mining rewards for 180 blocks that year and at one point held 200,000 Bitcoins, making them the fifth largest holder in Bitcoin history.

The holding cost of these addresses is only $1.76 per coin. Based on the current price of about $108,000, the unrealized profit is as high as 61,000 times. The market is concerned that if these Bitcoins are sold, it could have a huge impact on the market. Looking back at 2024 when the German government sold nearly 50,000 Bitcoins, it caused months of market turbulence, with a maximum drop of 32%. If this whale chooses to cash out, the potential selling pressure of 80,000 Bitcoins could trigger even more intense market fluctuations.

There are various speculations in the market regarding the reasons for the sudden awakening of these "sleeping" Bitcoins: some believe it is due to the early release of a Chinese national who was sentenced for misappropriation in an illegal fundraising case; others speculate that ancient miners accidentally recovered the hard drive storing their private keys; there are also viewpoints suggesting that this could be the main capital behind the recent Bitcoin surge testing the market's reaction in preparation for future chip allocation.

From the current situation, the third possibility is more likely. The reasons are: First, the whale transferred 80,000 Bitcoins to a new Address and did not perform any other operations, which aligns with the conventional security management behavior of large holders; second, after the news broke, the Bitcoin market price only slightly dropped by 1.09%, and there were no obvious signs of major capital withdrawal. This indicates that the whale may have no intention of large-scale selling in the short term, and the market players have not regarded this as an uncontrollable factor.

At the same time, a series of policy trends from the U.S. government have also attracted market attention. The "Gigantic and Beautiful Act" signed by Trump marks the implementation of a large-scale tax reduction and fiscal spending plan. This act is expected to lead to an increase in the federal budget deficit of about $5 trillion, far exceeding the $2.43 trillion increase in deficit brought about by the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" during his first term.

Although this may exacerbate the U.S. debt problem in the long term, in the short term, the passage of this bill is expected to increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market through measures such as making personal income tax and estate tax cuts permanent and raising the standard deduction.

Another potential positive is the possible adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for the banking system. The Federal Reserve is considering lowering the SLR requirement for large banks from 5% to 3.5% and may exclude low-risk assets from the leverage calculation. This adjustment is expected to free up about $2 trillion of balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and may lower long-term yields on U.S. Treasuries.

Currently, the macro policy mix in the United States is clear: new debt will be borne by the banking system and the stablecoin legislation, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide foundational liquidity support. This policy mix is expected to operate smoothly in the short term and is likely to continue supporting risk assets to remain strong.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a major upward trend, and short-term market fluctuations only cause intraday level fluctuations. With strong consensus support, Bitcoin is unlikely to undergo a deep correction. After a brief consolidation, prices are expected to continue rising, with a long-term target range of 127600-137500.