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The Federal Reserve (FED) officials release hawkish signals, the global Central Bank annual meeting may determine the interest rate path.
The global Central Bank annual meeting is approaching, and officials from The Federal Reserve (FED) are frequently releasing hawkish signals.
Next Friday, global investors will focus on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference held in Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the conference to discuss the economic outlook, which could provide important clues for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Before Powell's speech, several senior officials from The Federal Reserve (FED) have recently made hawkish remarks, seemingly setting the tone for the upcoming annual meeting. Observers expect that Powell will likely continue to emphasize the Central Bank's determination to curb inflation and control price expectations.
Last Friday, Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin stated that even in the face of the risk of economic recession, the Federal Reserve must remain committed to combating inflation. A day earlier, three Federal Reserve officials also expressed similar hardline positions.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is leaning towards a 75 basis point rate hike in September. He believes that the policy rate should be raised quickly to a level that can exert significant downward pressure on inflation and questioned the necessity of delaying the rate hike until next year.
Kansas City Fed President George pointed out that although the July CPI data is encouraging, it is still too early to declare that the inflation problem has been solved. She believes that U.S. inflation may be easing, but it remains at a high level.
Even the relatively moderate San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that the Federal Reserve should slightly raise interest rates to above 3% by the end of the year. She emphasized that the specific rate hike in September will depend on future economic data, with 50 or 75 basis points both potentially being appropriate choices.
Daly also specifically reminded the market not to expect the Federal Reserve to adopt a "hump-shaped" policy path, which means rapidly raising interest rates this year and then quickly shifting to rate cuts next year.
Affected by these hawkish remarks, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline on Friday.
Ann-Katrin Petersen, a senior strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, believes that in order to bring inflation down to the target of 2%, the Federal Reserve (FED) will have to take measures to suppress the economy. However, to promote economic growth, the FED may ultimately have to "accept coexistence with inflation." This policy shift may not occur until 2023, later than the current market expectations.