Market Highlights and Hot Event Analysis

1. Market Trends

1. Macroeconomic Environment

The Federal Reserve is reassessing the potential impact of the new government on the U.S. economy and inflation. Reports indicate that the Fed Chairman is dissatisfied with some officials' public comments, believing they are overly linking Fed policy to changes in government policy. Currently, the market generally expects that future rate cuts will be more gradual and cautious. Analysts point out that the prospect of Fed rate cuts in 2025 is full of uncertainty, and investors need to brace for possible economic turmoil.

According to financial market data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.8%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 50.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.

2. Cryptocurrency Market

The Bitcoin market has once again entered a correction, with prices hitting a low of $93,000, marking a new low for the past week. According to market data, the funding rates on major exchanges indicate a generally bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $287 million on Friday, with a total net outflow of $376 million last week. During the market correction, tokens on centralized exchanges have performed relatively well, while the interest in AI-related projects continues, with significant capital inflow.

2. Hot Events

1. Regulatory Dynamics

The regulatory head of a well-known venture capital institution publicly expressed confidence in decentralized finance (DeFi), believing that DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more convenient, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, the new broker-dealer report rule recently issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury is seen as a threat to DeFi innovation. The institution supports the lawsuit initiated by multiple blockchain and DeFi organizations, arguing that the IRS and the Treasury Department have exceeded their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act, and may be unconstitutional.

2. International Regulatory Actions

The Malaysian Securities Commission has taken strict enforcement action against a cryptocurrency trading platform because it operated a crypto asset trading business locally without proper registration. The regulator has ordered the platform to immediately cease operations in Malaysia and complete rectification within a specified timeframe. Additionally, the platform has been required to terminate all advertising activities aimed at Malaysian investors and shut down social media groups that provide support to local users.

3. Market Hotspots

1. AI Agent Market Performance

AI agent-related projects have once again attracted widespread attention. According to market data, although the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a correction, the AI agent sector has risen against the trend, with a 24-hour increase of 1.54%. A certain AI agent project recently released a proposal for an update on its tokenomics, which includes focusing on framework innovation and achieving multi-chain integration during the initial phase in the first quarter of 2025 by acquiring mature technologies and teams. The project's market capitalization once soared to $1.5 billion, setting a new historical high, reflecting the market's recognition of the potential of AI agents.

2. New Project Updates

A certain Solana ecosystem project has completed a large-scale token airdrop. The project allocated 10% of the total supply to wallets holding more than 0.006 SOL on a specified date, benefiting a total of 27,775,857 wallets. The project team utilized ZK compression technology to achieve large-scale distribution, significantly reducing the airdrop cost. The project's token reached a market value of over $10 million within half an hour of issuance, and has since retraced, currently with a market value of approximately $11 million.