The U.S. attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, potentially affecting the market with the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz | Learn about cryptoassets (virtual currencies) like Bitcoin through charts | Moneyクリ Money's investment information and media useful for money.

On the morning of June 22 (Sunday) Japan time, the United States attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran.

President Trump stated in his speech at the White House regarding the purpose of this attack, "Our objective is to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities and prevent the nuclear threat. The attack has achieved a remarkable success militarily." In response, the Iranian parliament has approved a policy to demand the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, depending on the decision of the Supreme Leader Khamenei and others.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have a significant impact on countries like Japan and China that depend on the import of crude oil passing through this strait. It is essential to pay attention to Iran's future developments.

BTC (Bitcoin) has it found a bottom for now? The target is 15.3 to 15.4 million yen.

[Figure 1] BTC/JPY Daily Chart Source: MONEX TRADER CRYPTO (iPhone app) This is an analysis of the BTC/JPY daily chart. This weekend saw a significant risk-off market, but the decline from the night of June 22 (Sunday) to the morning of June 23 (Monday) seems to have created a temporary bottom in price movement.

BTC fell sharply from Tokyo time on June 23, dropping to just below the 14 million yen range where the SMA200 (orange) was moving, marking a decline of over 10% from its peak. However, it has started to rebound significantly. In dollar terms, it dipped below $98,000 and then $100,000, but subsequently rebounded and recovered back above $100,000.

I don't think a final decision will be made easily regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Especially since negotiations with China will become important, it may take some time. Therefore, there may be a period of risk-on for a few days.

So a significant rise may be expected. During such tense conflict times, sharp declines and quick rebounds are likely to occur, which may present investment opportunities. Personally, I anticipate a price recovery up to the SMA30.

[Chart 2] BTC/JPY 4-hour candlestick chart Source: MONEX TRADER CRYPTO (iPhone app) This is a 4-hour chart analysis of BTC/JPY. It is moving within a parallel channel range, and the target for the upper price is predicted at the descending line of the upper limit.

The near-term target is expected to be between 15.3 to 15.4 million yen, and the points where SMA90 (light blue) and SMA200 (orange) are moving could be the profit-taking points. The descending trend line is also moving within a similar price range, and there are plenty of technical conditions available.

Personally, I expect that the temporary upper limit will be capped here, and my strategy is to aim for profit-taking. If there is a larger upward trend, I will wait and see.

Will the ETH (Ethereum) pullback reach SMA30?

[Chart 3] ETH/JPY Daily Chart Source: MONEX TRADER CRYPTO (iPhone app) This is an analysis of the ETH/JPY daily chart. It seems to be a range market trapped between SMA90 (light blue) and SMA200 (orange).

In the event of an emergency, it is difficult to maintain the price of altcoins, and further declines are expected. On June 22, the price was supported by SMA90 (light blue). I would like to assume a range market of SMA90-SMA200, but I don't think the recovery will progress that far. Therefore, we would like to use the rebound assuming SMA 30 (yellow) to the high and take a return selling strategy.

The MACD has dropped to around 0.00, completing the adjustment. There is a significant possibility that a trend will emerge from here. If there is a retracement from the bounce, it may lead to a retest of the 2025 lows. While being cautious of a sharp decline, a strategy of selling on the bounce with a small amount might be advisable. Personally, I believe that the start of a major risk-on market will be after October, so the sell-on-bounce market may dominate until early September?

I would like to focus on hedging with BTC in the buying direction and ETH in the selling direction.