ADA at the critical threshold – Breakout $1 or breakdown?

Cardano (ADA) currently not receiving much interest from whales. Instead of "buying when the market is scared", they are selling off in a panic market — repeating the familiar scenario: dump first, pump later. The $0.6 support level is being severely tested. If there is no strong enough buying force to appear, this seems to be a danger point instead of a bounce buffer.

So with the whales retreating and the fundamental factors not really playing out, is the $1 target becoming more distant than feasible?

Wallet pool holding 10 million – 100 million ADA will activate breakdown**?**

Data from Santiment shows a clear focus: wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA are controlling 35.62% of the total supply — making this whale group the main dominant force in Cardano's on-chain structure. Immediately followed by the group of wallets holding from 100,000 to 1 million ADA, accounting for 16.23%, which is considered the largest mid-range liquidity layer.

In total, these two groups hold more than half of the total circulating ADA, meaning that any movement from them could create a strong reversal for the price.

If the group of 10 million - 100 million starts distributing assets during a weak market, the support structure of ADA may collapse once again.

Source: SantimentThat is why reclaiming the $1 mark is not just a psychological milestone — but a structural reset.

Recall that in mid-January, the whale group holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA began to accumulate strongly. Two months later, when ADA returned to its original cost level, it began to discharge to break even.

The percentage of ADA held by this group has decreased from 35.51% to 34.41%. As a result, the price of ADA slid down to $0.6. But then, the situation changed — whales "caught the bottom", pushing the holding percentage back up to 35.62%.

However, after three months, the price of ADA is still below the average cost price of this group — meaning they are still in a state of loss. It is likely that some people in the group will continue to sell to cut losses or break even. So, this week's sell-off of 270 million ADA is most likely just the beginning.

The whales are testing patience as the $1 mark is still far away

Leverage is decreasing in the ADA derivatives market, indicating that futures traders are avoiding high-risk positions. Weak speculative sentiment makes the cash flow outside has not yet returned.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator is approaching the strong oversold area — a region that has previously caused significant price reversals.

But it is also necessary to consider the context. The last time this model appeared, Bitcoin was breaking through the $110,000 mark, creating a push that dispelled macroeconomic concerns and sparked a wave of capital rotation into altcoins.

Currently, the ADA/BTC pair is retesting the support zone from February, but with the RSI pinned firmly in the oversold region and the trading volume not confirming the upward momentum, market momentum remains very weak.

If there is no improvement in relative strength, ADA will continue to lag behind and struggle to attract a flow of truly confident capital.

ADA/BTC Price Chart | Source: TradingViewWhen combining that with the absence of speculative cash flows, weak on-chain accumulation, and slow capital flows, the picture becomes increasingly fragile. The $1 mark that was once seen as a milestone now looks more like a resistance zone than a recovery signal.

Meanwhile, the signs indicate that whales are getting increasingly fatigued, raising the likelihood of a capitulation, pushing ADA's support zone of $0.6 into a "thin fragile ice" situation.

Minh Anh